Nullius in verba. Understanding uncertainty with statistician, Sir David Speigelhalter, PhD

Name: Sir David Speigelhalter, PhD

Location: University of Cambridge, England. 

Specialty: Statistician and researcher. 

Today it’s our privilege to have distinguished researcher and statistician, Sir David Speigelhalter. “Sir David” in addition to being knighted by the Queen, is also a fellow of the Royal Society. That calls for a quick digression. Founded all the way back in 1660, The Royal Society is the world’s oldest scientific academy. They published Newton’s “Principia Mathmatica” and Benjamin Franklin’s kite experiment. They even backed James Cook’s journey to Tahiti to track the transit of Venus. Giants such as Newton, Darwin, Eisenstein and Hawking are all all past members. Their motto, “Nullius in verba” means “take nobody’s word for it.” What a great theme for today’s episode.

David is currently Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge. An ISI highly cited researcher, David has also dedicated much of his time and energy to public education through numerous news appearances, Ted Talks, books such as the one we are discussing today and documentaries such as his recent BBC series geared towards children.

David’s recently published book, “The Art of Statistics: How to Learn from Data,” is a wonderful refresher aimed at fixing the common mistakes and statistical knowledge blind spots many of us have…even highly educated physicians and researchers. He also covers cutting edge subjects such as artificial intelligence, biostatistics, bias and fraud detection, risk, statistical significance, and even black box algorithms. We’ll explore the realistic potential and limits of what can be learned from large multivariate data sets, a.k.a. big data.

As you’ll see, David is a gifted teacher and a real joy to talk with. With that said, let’s get started.

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Mismeasuring Medicine. “The Tyranny of Metrics,” with Jerry Z. Muller, PhD

 

Name: Jerry Z. Muller, PhD

Location: Catholic University of America. Washington, DC

Specialty: Professor of History.

Most of you know the quote, “If you cannot measure it, you cannot improve it.” It’s often attributed, incorrectly, to the famous nineteenth century physicist, Lord Kelvin. Wherever it came from, it’s sounds about right. Same goes for this familiar quote from a popular business book author, “What gets measured gets done.”

Well, in today’s episode were going to talk about what’s getting measured and what’s actually getting done. What’s getting measured are thousands of performance and quality indicators. What’s getting done is docking our medical system billions of dollars every year in costs and lost productivity. Nothing new to all of you out there. But what if this “metric fixation,” is doing more than just wasting time and money? Used correctly, metrics and big data analysis offer incredible promise for research, visibility and improvement. Used incorrectly, they can steer us off course, devalue professional judgment, manipulate, encourage fraud, and possibly cause real harm to physicians, hospitals and patients.

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First Bitcoin, Next Medicine. Get Ready for Blockchain with Harvard Physician and Technologist, Dr. William Gordon.

peerspectrum- william gordon

Name: William J. Gordon, MD

Location: Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical College: Boston, MA.

Specialty: Clinical Informatics Fellow at Partners HealthCare, Hospitalist and Instructor in Medicine.

All right, welcome back. Imagine a world where patients can access their medical records anytime, anywhere with immutable security. Imagine every instance along a patient’s continuum of care recorded and easily searchable. Imagine the opportunity to meta search millions of health records and data points, and even outcomes, without compromising an individual patient’s personal identity. Imagine patients using these resources to evaluate and choose their hospitals, and even you.

Folks, this isn’t science fiction or wishful thinking. It’s a technology called block-chain and if you’ve heard of bitcoin, you’ve heard of block-chain.

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